한국개발연구원(KDI), 하반기 경제전망 수정치 발표
KDI(Korea Development Institute), the national research organization, will release the "revised forecast for the second half of the year" on the 9th, which is the most anticipated economic indicator this week.
In May, KDI lowered its growth rate forecast for this year from 1.8% to 1.5% in the "first half economic outlook." The reason was the sluggish performance of the semiconductor industry. In the revised forecast in August, KDI maintained the forecast of 1.5%, expecting the economy to hit the bottom in the first half and recover in the second half.
However, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Bank of Korea, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) all presented a growth rate forecast of 1.4% for this year. Therefore, the focus is on whether KDI will lower the growth rate forecast for the second half of the year below 1.5%, or maintain it as it is.
The increased uncertainty due to the Israel-Hamas conflict is a negative factor. On the other hand, the fact that exports have turned into a surplus after 13 months and there are signs of recovery in the semiconductor industry is a positive factor. In the "October Economic Trends" announced on the 11th of last month, KDI analyzed, "The economic downturn is gradually easing, as the decline in exports is decreasing," but also pointed out, "Uncertainties in the external environment such as the prolonged tightening of the US currency and the rise in international oil prices still exist." The report did not reflect the Israel-Hamas conflict that occurred on the 7th of last month.
On the 9th, the Ministry of Economy and Finance will announce the "Fiscal Trends" including fiscal balance and national debt (central government debt) until the end of September. Until the end of August, the national debt has increased by 12.1 trillion won compared to the accumulated total from January to July, surpassing 1,110 trillion won. The fiscal balance (based on management fiscal balance) was a deficit of 66 trillion won until August. How the figures have improved in September is the point of attention.
On the 8th...
In May, KDI lowered its growth rate forecast for this year from 1.8% to 1.5% in the "first half economic outlook." The reason was the sluggish performance of the semiconductor industry. In the revised forecast in August, KDI maintained the forecast of 1.5%, expecting the economy to hit the bottom in the first half and recover in the second half.
However, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Bank of Korea, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) all presented a growth rate forecast of 1.4% for this year. Therefore, the focus is on whether KDI will lower the growth rate forecast for the second half of the year below 1.5%, or maintain it as it is.
The increased uncertainty due to the Israel-Hamas conflict is a negative factor. On the other hand, the fact that exports have turned into a surplus after 13 months and there are signs of recovery in the semiconductor industry is a positive factor. In the "October Economic Trends" announced on the 11th of last month, KDI analyzed, "The economic downturn is gradually easing, as the decline in exports is decreasing," but also pointed out, "Uncertainties in the external environment such as the prolonged tightening of the US currency and the rise in international oil prices still exist." The report did not reflect the Israel-Hamas conflict that occurred on the 7th of last month.
On the 9th, the Ministry of Economy and Finance will announce the "Fiscal Trends" including fiscal balance and national debt (central government debt) until the end of September. Until the end of August, the national debt has increased by 12.1 trillion won compared to the accumulated total from January to July, surpassing 1,110 trillion won. The fiscal balance (based on management fiscal balance) was a deficit of 66 trillion won until August. How the figures have improved in September is the point of attention.
On the 8th...
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